- By: Saif Ur Rehman
After a massive setback to Tehran led “Axis of Resistance,” followed by the execution of Hamas commander Ismail Haniyah and Hezbollah commander Hassan Nasrallah , Iran seemed to be quiet and unpredictable at the same time.
There were also reports anticipating that reformists now in power wanted to mend fences with the West, even if it meant throwing Iran’s Axis allies under the bus. Contrary to it, all speculations were proved blatantly wrong when Iran came up with its final plotting of launching more than 200 ballistic missiles on Tel Aviv and its Air Base on the 1st of October.
It must be remembered that no major fatalities were reported, but the masterstroke by Iran exposed Israel’s and the US claimed mighty “air dome system.” Al Jazeera reported that 90° of these missiles made their oriented target.
Having said that, it was an open message by Tehran that it has a remarkable power of retaliation and must not be underestimated.
A key thing to remember is that Israel was deliberately provoking Iran to retaliate , so Tel Aviv could justifiably pull its unflinching patron, the mighty America, into the vortex to achieve its evil agenda of colonial projects in the Middle East. Iran made it feasible.
America is now directly going to be the part of the combatant segment, as it could be professed through Biden’s and Kamala Harris meetings with their deputies in the recent past. Not only the US, but the UK also vowed to dispatch military and economic potential to Israel. A report unleashed only the Washington, DC, has aided Israel with weapons worth 30 billion dollars. Several sources, including the BBC, claimed the retaliation by the US and Israel would be unpredictable and unmeasurable far compared to hitherto vengeance by the Western allies.
With this in mind, we cannot negate the potential of Israel and its Western and European allies. But still, we cannot miscalculate the power of Tehran. They are used to these cumbersome scenarios. It is evident from their history that the killing of their former Hezbollah leaders and Hammas commanders in 1992 and 2004 consecutively did not let their morale down. It would not be out of place to mention here that it was the Hezbollah who threw away Israel from Lebanon in 2000 after their barbaric occupation in the aforementioned territory.
It seems pertinent to say that Iran would retaliate to Israel and the US with its potential because it has an exaggerated potential to do so. Iran, along its “axis of resistance,“ possesses the outright output to bend the West led allies on their knees. All things considered, the situation somehow forecasts the eruption of a greater war in the Middle East. It would not only affect the above-mentioned territory, but it is most likely to spread its tentacles over swathes of the globe. Economically, the Eastern Globe will confront severe aftermaths. The war in the Middle East will choke the Persian Gulf (sea) and the Red Sea.
Interestingly, the Red Sea is already dysfunctional by Ansarallh, a Yemen-led militant outfit, and the Persian Gulf lies in between Iran and the Arab World. Notably, nearly 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz (connected to the Persian Gulf), and the Red Sea connects to the Suez Canal, one of the busiest and most vital global shipping lanes.
A significant portion of global trade, particularly between Europe and Asia, passes through this route. So any disruption in the region would cast dreadful consequences globally, crucially in the Eastern world, which majorly trades through these routes. Eventually, oil prices will spark to a tragic extent, and global inflation could be rightly prophesied.
Tragically, if the events follow the designed hierarchy, the Eastern World would be the one to take exceptional decisions. In a best case scenario, it would be striving for peace in the region through viable diplomatic talks or treaties. Vice versa, it would align itself in a specific domain. In a nutshell, there is a dire need by the international power sector to scrutinize the ongoing menace before the affairs go uncontrolled.
- The writer is an independent analyst and student at University of Education.
- cspsaif@hotmail.com