- By: Mohammad Ayub Khan
On August 5, the world in general and the South Asians in particular were shocked to see the jubilant residents of Dhaka were carrying away whatever they could lay their hands on, when they forced the country Prime Ministers to flee and looted her official residence. How come a seemingly stable and achieving the highest GDP growth rate (of above 7%) in the region, the Bangladeshi government will collapse in the face of furious student’s protest, which started a barely month ago.
Most recently the Awami League had the hat trick, when the party won the parliamentary elections for the third time in a row. Earlier in the December 2008 elections, the party was able to win 230 out of 300 parliamentary seats of the Jatiya Sangsad or national parliament. Perhaps the party performed slighter better thus enhanced its strength to 234 in the parliament during the 2014 elections. Election results for the party in 2018 were more encouraging when it improved its score to 257. The recently held election (January 2024), the Awami League experienced a significant drop, when it finished with 224 in the house of 300 parliamentarians.
After taking oath of the Prime Minister for the 4th time in a row, Sheikh Hasina did not realize that she will have to deal with the newly emerged strategic alignments/alliances in and around the South Asian region. Meanwhile she bravely resisted the right wingers and even cleansed the country constitution of martial law’s era undemocratic and non-secular amendments. For instance, in 1988, through 7th amendment in the constitution, General Zia, Islam was made as the state religion. When Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009, she amended the constitution and restored the secular face of the constitution through 15th amendment in 2013. More importantly she vigorously lobbied to bring the collaborators, obliquely referred to the Jamaat Islami Bangladesh leaders who assisted the Pakistan army during 1971 war of independence. During her reign in power majority of these so-called collaborators were tried in the courts and awarded capital punishments to most of them.
Staying for long in the power has its flip side of its affects. Winning elections since 1996 and leading the country as a prime minister for five times not only irritate the common voters but also promote the tendency of dictatorship in the party. It is against the democratic culture when a leader keeps clinging to power and never mentor the 2nd and 3rd layer of leadership in the party. Sheikh Hasina developed such symptoms since the 1986 when she assumed leadership of Awami League and led the party to electoral victories since 1996. When it was politically expedient she even joined hands with her arch rival Jamaat Islami against the military dictator General Ershad. It was Sheikh Hasina demand back in 1990s to hold elections under a neutral setup but unfortunately it was later her own summersault when she abolished the said arrangements to hold fair and free elections.
After taking oath of office for the fourth time in a row as Prime Minister of Bangladesh she did not reshuffle priorities for her foreign policy. It was always as before an Indian centric. She also forgot that when it comes to power struggle, no close or distant relation will serve any purpose. The present army chief General Waker was her handpicked who was first appointed as chief of general staff in December last year. General Waker’s father in Law General Mustafiz ur Rahman, the former Bangladesh Army Chief (Dec 1997 to Dec 2000) is Sheikh Hasina’s uncle. Most probably it was the same motivation (lets avoid writing nepotism) when the deposed Prime Minister appointed Genera Waker as the country army chief on June 11, 2024.
A number of conspiracy theories are in the air. But there are few solid factors, which might be the reason of Sheikh Hasina untimely downfall. It is believed that power went to her head and she little cared about her political opponents. On domestic front she was accused of excessively favoring her party cronies. It was her latest decision of allocating 30% government jobs for the family of 1971 freedom fighters which provoked thousands of jobless young men and university students to revolt. Bangladesh students in particular led the agitation who were furious over the Sheikh Hasina Govt decision and eventually brought down her government.
Besides, there is also a rumor that she had reached an understanding with China and both countries were finalizing an accord for a land route through Myanmar/Bangladesh to provide access to Chinese to the Indian Ocean. Or an extension of China Myanmar Economic Corridor. Most recently (1st week of July) when Sheikh Hasina was in China and about to sign a deal of constructing a vital irrigation canal, she got a call from India which made her visit terminate few hours before the scheduled departure from Beijing. It is said Indian officials informed her that India was willing to fund the said irrigation project at her terms. Meanwhile the Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina upgraded the earlier Strategic Partnership to a Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership during the said visit to China.
Sheikh Hasina has gone but her shocking ouster has left us wondering in Pakistan. What is in store for us? For a quarter of a century Bangladesh and Pakistan remained twin and there are good and bad tendencies which we share. In a short life of fifty years Bangladesh went through a hell and remained under Martial Law for one third of its total existence. If the Awami League Govt could not survive an alleged pressure exerted by India and the US to keep it away from joining hands with China, how come Pakistan play safe? Unlike Bangladesh which seemed politically stable and economically on better grounds, Pakistan is gravely weak and also suffers many lethal ills. For Pakistani civil and military leadership there is a lesson to learn. Talk to each other without any pre-condition and prejudice before the last straw falls over the back of crawling camel. Balochistan is burning and Pakhtunkhwa is about to explode. There should be a grand dialogue between all stakeholders. We need a complete overhaul of our political and governance system. Even drastic amendments in the constitution to the satisfaction of decently leaders is not a big price to pay.