- By: Barrister Usman Ali, Ph.D.
In the federal election held on Monday, April 28, 2025, despite widespread projections of a majority, the Liberal Party of Canada, under Mark Carney’s leadership, will form a minority government, with preliminary results showing 168 seats out of 343 , four short of the 172 required for a majority.
In a surprising turn of events, Canadians delivered a split mandate. The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, is expected to secure 144 seats. In a stunning personal setback, Poilievre is projected to lose his own seat to a Liberal candidate, after competing against 89 other candidates in his riding, a symbolic blow that underscores his party’s failure to convert public dissatisfaction into a governing mandate.
To govern, the Liberals will now have to rely on both the Bloc Québécois, projected to win 23 seats, and the New Democratic Party, reduced to just 7 seats. The NDP’s collapse marks the end of an era: its leader, Jagmeet Singh, lost his seat and has announced his resignation. This leaves the NDP weakened and creates uncertainty around its future role in Parliament.
The electorate chose change, but not the kind the Conservatives were offering. Despite their emphatic slogan of “CHANGE,” Canadians opted for a change in leadership, not a change in government. By rejecting the Conservative platform and embracing a fresh face within the Liberal Party, voters signaled both caution and impatience: unwilling to risk radical shifts, yet demanding serious renewal.
Carney now inherits a deeply fractured political landscape. A minority government lacks legislative freedom and must seek constant support from opposition parties. Recent history offers warning signs. Justin Trudeau’s back-to-back minority governments in 2019 and 2021 survived through careful alliances, especially with the NDP, but legislative progress was slow, compromises were frequent, and public frustration grew. Trudeau’s eventual failure to regain a majority reflected declining trust in the Liberal brand.
For Carney, the risks are even greater. The NDP, in the leadership transition, cannot offer steady support. The Bloc Québécois will pursue Quebec-first priorities, demanding concessions. Every major policy will require delicate negotiation; a single miscalculation could collapse the government.
There will be no honeymoon period. Though Carney boasts world-class credentials, former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, technocratic expertise alone is not enough. Political instinct, emotional intelligence, and public connection are now non-negotiable.
Canada in 2025 is a country under enormous strain. The housing crisis is the most urgent public concern. Affordability has vanished in major cities. Rent prices continue to rise while supply remains throttled by red tape, labour shortages, and political inertia. The public demands results, not consultations. Ottawa must work aggressively with provinces and municipalities to unlock large-scale housing development, fast.
The cost of living remains a crushing burden. Inflation has cooled, but food prices, utilities, and rents continue to squeeze households. Meanwhile, the federal deficit remains stuck above $40 billion. Carney must walk a razor-thin line: cuts will be unpopular, but unchecked spending risks reigniting inflation.
Healthcare, a perennial issue, has reached a breaking point. Emergency rooms are closing. Family doctors are disappearing, particularly in rural areas. Although healthcare delivery is a provincial responsibility, Ottawa controls funding. Carney must use that leverage to enforce national standards and measurable outcomes.
Immigration, long seen as a political strength, is becoming a source of tension. High intake rates strain services and housing supply, even as the economy urgently needs new workers. The challenge will be to recalibrate immigration policy so that growth does not outpace infrastructure.
Internationally, Canada faces a much tougher environment. The return of Donald Trump to the White House threatens new tariffs, trade frictions, and climate disputes. Carney’s international experience will be an asset, but the era of relying on stable U.S. relations is over. A stronger, more independent foreign policy is essential.
Domestically, crises mount. The opioid epidemic ravages Western Canada. Homelessness is rising across major cities. Mental health services are stretched thin. These problems require more than federal cheques; they demand federal leadership that is visible, accountable, and focused on results.
Perhaps Carney’s most critical task is restoring public trust. Canadians are tired of slogans, photo ops, and symbolic politics. They expect action, candour, and transparency. Carney may be seen as capable, but he is not yet seen as connected. Without forging real bonds with voters, he risks being perceived as distant, elite, or imposed.
The Liberal caucus must resist the temptation to repeat the Trudeau-era branding strategies. Canadians no longer crave charisma. They want competence, humility, and delivery. Carney’s value lies not in charm, but in credibility, not in image, but in outcomes.
History is clear. Canadian voters are courteous but ruthless. They elevate leaders quickly and discard them just as fast when expectations go unmet. Justin Trudeau once symbolized generational hope; today, he stands as a cautionary tale of promises unfulfilled. If Carney fails to learn from that arc, he may well repeat it.
In sum, this new government inherits a country stretched thin , economically, socially, and politically. The appetite for platitudes is gone. The demand for seriousness is unmistakable.
Now, it’s up to Mark Carney to prove that he can be the kind of leader this moment demands, not a placeholder, not a performer, but a principled navigator through one of the most complex chapters in Canada’s modern history.
In 2025, leadership isn’t about commanding attention. It’s about commanding trust