- By: Sumera Shah (MS Economics)
- IMSciences Peshawar
Climate change has become a serious danger to many industries in recent years, including global trade, food security, and transportation networks. The requirement for resilient and adaptable systems and infrastructure grows as extreme weather events occur more frequently.
Although past climate conditions were taken into consideration when designing transportation infrastructure, many of these requirements are now being exceeded. The use of risk-based thinking in planning has made it necessary to prioritize the construction of more robust infrastructure. Nevertheless, considering the uncertainty surrounding climate change and its effects, this strategy might not be adequate. Researchers have found both direct and indirect techniques to interfere with transportation networks. Physical harm to infrastructure as well as non-physical effects like decision-making and human health are examples of direct consequences. Interconnections with other vital infrastructure and societal systems give rise to indirect repercussions.
At the moment, the majority of vulnerability assessments concentrate on direct paths and mostly deal with physical resilience. This frequently entails bolstering and protecting infrastructure from hazards associated with climate change. On the other hand, the study indicates that indirect channels may also cause major disruptions and necessitate an alternative strategy. In order to address these non-physical obstacles and improve overall resilience, transportation planning should place a strong emphasis on flexibility and agility.
Seaports are vital hubs for supply chains and markets, contributing significantly to international trade and the “Blue Economy.” Since the sea carries more than 80% of global trade, ports are essential to economic activity, particularly in developing countries. But because of their coastal locations, they are especially susceptible to climate-related risks including increasing sea levels and harsh weather.
Ports are at significant risk from climate change; estimates suggest that many of these essential infrastructures will be very vulnerable to floods and other damages by the 2030s. Not only can storm surges and heavy rains increase rising sea levels and catastrophic sea levels, but they also pose a threat to nearby towns and economy. Weather-related disasters have a startling economic impact. For example, it was predicted that $320 billion was lost as a result of extreme weather events in 2017, with small island developing nations (SIDS) typically suffering the brunt of these expenses.
It is impossible to exaggerate the significance of climate resilience in ports. Ports are long-term investments, and the maintenance of global supply lines depends on their ability to adapt to changing climatic circumstances. According to World Bank estimates, natural disasters result approximately $520 billion in lost worldwide consumption each year. This amount greatly surpasses the asset losses generally disclosed, suggesting a more profound economic effect of climate-related occurrences.
A major strain on food costs is also coming from climate change and other global concerns. Due to supply chain disruptions brought on by the pandemic and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, food prices for staple products including rice, cocoa, and soybeans have increased. Extreme weather, like the world record high temperatures that occurred in the summer of 2023, has made these problems worse, leading to crop failures and reducing the supply of food.
For example, cocoa prices doubled since the beginning of 2023 and reached all-time highs in early 2024 as a result of dry weather affecting harvests in West Africa. In a similar vein, the extended drought that affected Mediterranean countries and the notable increase in average temperatures over the previous year caused an explosion in olive oil prices. Reservoir levels in Andalusia, Spain, the region that produces a large portion of the world’s olive oil, are reportedly only 25% full, which has a detrimental effect on crop output.
The state of affairs is catastrophic, with costly and frequent extreme weather disasters. According to research, the cost of damages has climbed by almost 77% over the previous 50 years, and the frequency of such catastrophes has increased fivefold between 1970 and 2019. For example, the July 2021 floods in Germany and nearby nations led in almost 200 fatalities and estimated damages of $43 billion.
These changes are being driven by climate change, as rising temperatures bring more severe and unpredictable weather patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attests to the fact that emissions resulting from human activity raise global temperatures, which in turn fuel extreme weather phenomena. The previous three decades have been the warmest on record due to the 1.2°C rise in global temperature caused by the use of fossil fuels.
Forecasts indicate that, in the absence of substantial adaptation efforts, the economic value of assets vulnerable to coastal flooding may increase to 12%–20% of the world’s gross domestic product by 2100. Ports and coastal facilities will be even more vulnerable as the frequency of extreme sea level events rises. By the 2030s, exceptional sea levels—which are predicted to occur once every century—may occur every ten years in many places due to global warming of 1.5°C.
In summary, the interdependence of the effects of climate change on trade, transportation, and food security emphasizes the pressing need for all-encompassing initiatives to improve resilience across industries. While seaports must adjust to extreme weather and rising sea levels, transportation systems must change to take into account the growing frequency of interruptions brought on by climate change. Proactive steps are also needed in the food supply chain to lessen the impact of climate change on food prices and agricultural productivity. Governments, businesses, and communities must work together to address the issue of climate change in order to create a future that is more resilient and sustainable.